Anyone with a passing knowledge of data analysis knows the danger of drawing firm conclusions from small samples and that’s worth bearing in mind when it comes to a couple of the more interesting stories that have surfaced this week.
It is only natural that people start to take an interest when a champion goes through a tough period and Zac Purton endured another frustrating night at Happy Valley on Wednesday, just missing out in several close finishes with the result that he heads into Saturday’s Sha Tin card on a winless run of 30.
That is Zac’s longest losing sequence in a little over four years and, having witnessed the sort of fierce competitor he is for over a decade, I have no doubt that it will be making him hungrier than ever.
For all that our top riders usually deliver with a high level of consistency, losing runs are something that all major sportsmen have to deal with at one time or another.
Racing fans who have been around as long as I have may recall that the great American rider Steve Cauthen won the Triple Crown as a teenager aboard Affirmed in 1978 and then went to California and suffered an astonishing run of 110 consecutive rides without a winner.
Zac is far too strong a character to let just three meetings without a winner affect his mindset. It’s important to remember that he’s been in tough situations many times before – coming from well behind to beat Joao Moreira for the title in two of the last three seasons – and a string of good looking rides on Saturday gives him the chance to bounce back again.
Our new season is still too young to start drawing firm conclusions about the growing influence of Conghua on Hong Kong racing but I can only say that the early signs from the last seven weeks continue to be very promising.
The horse population at our Mainland racecourse and training centre reached a new record of 356 in midweek and the results continue to tell the tale of a facility that is playing a key role in shaping some key metrics.
Wednesday’s Valley card produced another three Conghua winners, namely Virtus Star and Heavenly Thought as part of a treble for Frankie Lor and also Explosive Witness for Caspar Fownes.
Caspar and Frankie have supplied more travelling winners than any of their colleagues this season and currently occupy the top two places in the overall table. Add in the fact that Conghua played a crucial role in Ricky Yiu’s push for a first trainers’ title last season and it would appear that the ability to use our second site to maximum effect is likely to prove a big plus for any trainer with championship ambitions.
Saturday’s final race is the Class 2 Argyle Handicap over 1400m with rising stars Mighty Giant and Sky Field putting their impressive winning streaks on the line. Mighty Giant has won his last four races in a rapid rise from Class 4 and will use his natural speed to cross over from gate 10 and dictate a good pace. Purton rides Mighty Giant and Moreira is on Sky Field.
Mighty Giant is a proven course and distance specialist and a tough customer over this trip. He returned from an extended layoff to win on National Day and it will take a very good horse to beat him here. I make him a solid place chance.
The very good horse that faces the big question stepping up in trip is Sky Field, an odds-on winner of his last three races. He has a big turn of foot and will need to call on every ounce of it to run down Mighty Giant. He will settle about midfield from his good draw and his closing section makes him a win and place chance.
But it would be a mistake to regard this purely as a two-horse race. Lucky Express is another exciting four-year-old who is ready for this step up to 1400m and he could be a surprise winner. The consistent Ballistic King is a place chance and I also like Beauty Smile for a place. He is aiming for the Classic Series next year and his disappointing performance last time can be explained as he was found to have a substantial amount of mucus in his trachea.
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