A swift glance at the roll of honour for the BMW Hong Kong Derby is all that is needed to tell you what awaits us at Sha Tin this Sunday.
The slogan which accompanies the race is ‘Once In A Lifetime Glory,’ which is highly appropriate given that each four-year-old gets just one chance to prove himself the best of his generation.
However, the Derby can also provide a priceless glimpse of Hong Kong’s racing future as well as its present and I have been lucky enough to see some very special winners during my time here.
Horses like Vengeance Of Rain, Viva Pataca, Ambitious Dragon, Designs On Rome, Akeed Mofeed and Werther all went on to further major success after their Derby wins and the way the cards have fallen into place for this year’s leading contenders has been fascinating.
Dark Dream staked a strong early claim with his runaway win in December, while Furore looked very impressive in winning the Classic Mile in January.
Mission Tycoon showed how dangerous it is to give a good horse an easy lead in the Classic Cup in February, and all the while Waikuku has been progressing in races outside the Classic Series in typical John Size fashion.
As ever, the human stories provide considerable added interest to the Derby drama and Waikuku now has an added question to answer from gate 14 as he bids to give John Size his fourth Derby win.
John will be well aware that he saddled Fay Fay to win the 2012 Derby from the same barrier and equally aware that his former assistant Frankie Lor saddles three of the main dangers to Waikuku this year in Furore, Mission Tycoon and Dark Dream.
It would be a fantastic advert for racing here if Frankie could win the Derby at his very first attempt and the Hong Kong angle is just as strong for Vincent Ho and Derek Leung.
Owners love to bring in superstar riders for days like this and it’s good to see that Ryan Moore, Hugh Bowman, James McDonald, Oisin Murphy and Craig Williams are all back in town this weekend.
Their presence makes it tough for Hong Kong riders but Vincent and Derek have earned their opportunity to shine aboard Ka Ying Star and Mission Tycoon and we wish them all the best as they bid to become the first homegrown rider since Tony Cruz in 1995 to land the cherished prize.
As you can see, all the elements are in place for a very special story to be played out in front of a huge crowd at Sha Tin this weekend.
For me this is a very strong Derby field indeed with six horses in the 14-runner race that have competed in both the Classic Mile and Classic Cup, including the two pace setters Ka Ying Star and Mission Tycoon.
These two have been a bit of a surprise with Mission Tycoon finishing second in the Classic Mile at 204-1 before making all in the Classic Cup at 91-1. Ka Ying Star won his Hong Kong debut making all at 28-1 and has since run third in both the Classic Mile and Classic Cup. For the third straight time, they will establish the running.
The pace will be modest as it is unlikely that any other horse will push the tempo. Gold Chest, Helene Leadingstar and Enrichment will be fairly close to the pace but none from this group has shown a willingness to press forward and it is even less likely they will do so here over this distance. This is often the case in the Derby.
The three highest rated horses are Waikuku, Dark Dream and Furore and these are the three top chances in the race.
Waikuku drew gate 14 and like last year’s Derby winner Ping Hai Star, his last race was 15 days prior. The difference is that Ping Hai Star had only gone as far as 1400m prior to winning the Derby. Waikuku seemed to be following the same path but his last win was over 1800m. I expect he will be ridden quietly, particularly after he overcame a wide draw in his last start to win impressively coming from the back.
Dark Dream was close up in the Classic Cup and a bit one paced, finishing second to stablemate Mission Tycoon. He should be midfield this time and seems in good order. He is a course and distance winner on a wet track and is drawn inside his main rivals but he will be at his very best over an even longer trip with softer ground.
Furore is another talented horse who won the Classic Mile showing an excellent turn of foot to beat Mission Tycoon, Ka Ying Star and Dark Dream very impressively. He did very well when a strong-finishing fourth behind that trio in the Classic Cup, once again recording the fastest closing sectional, and with the extra distance sure to suit here he is my first choice.
Hugh Bowman rides Furore and Joao Moreira is on Waikuku. It will be very interesting to see when their riders press the button but both horses are clearly high class.
Enrichment has quietly stayed in the Derby picture with consistent efforts and he is also a place chance with Ryan Moore taking the ride. He will be no worse than midfield and is well suited by the Derby distance.
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