As can be the case with racing fans, myself included, I have been “suffering” from a case of “Derby fever”. We all anxiously await the results from tomorrow’s BMW Hong Kong Derby, a race which provides not just once-in-a-lifetime glory, but significant pointers to the future. The honour roll of past Derby winners is hallowed, and often the first major step on the road to more. Four of the last six Derby winners have earned at least one international Group 1 win, the most recent of course being Werther last year. While Rapper Dragon has been incredibly solid through our Classic Series, the distance of 2000m is a question mark. Will he become the first horse to win the Classic Mile, Cup and then achieve a Derby win?
The field of 14 assembled for tomorrow’s BMW Hong Kong Derby seems particularly exciting, not just for what is possible on Sunday, but also as this crop seems poised for much future success in Hong Kong. A truly once-in-a-lifetime event, the prestige of horse ownership in Hong Kong gets even more so when one knows their horse has only one chance to achieve Derby glory. The Derby dream for Kerm Din started a year ago when he purchased Pakistan Star from our Hong Kong International Sale. Last night at Sha Tin we had a fantastic edition of the HKIS with 29 lots selling for a total of HK$130.9 million. I wish all of the purchasers the best of luck in the future and hope we see some of them in next year’s edition of the Derby.
The barrier draw for tomorrow’s race, which was conducted Thursday morning at Sha Tin, does not seem to have too many drawbacks for the leading hopes. Rapper Dragon is well-positioned in gate four while Pakistan Star will likely drop back, as is his usual tactic, from a wide draw in 13. As for the pace, it will likely be slow which will favour horses in the front of the field. Those most likely to go forward are Circuit Hassler, My Darling and potentially Rodrico, but the pace setup is a bit of an unknown. Booming Delight can be versatile and Dinozzo could be closer given his good draw. Prawn Baba might also be fairly close to the pace. Both Rapper Dragon and Seasons Bloom are likely to adopt positions in midfield. Beauty Generation is expected to drop back after last race when ridden forward. Gold Mount and Limitless are probably going to be near the rear with Eagle Way and, of course, Pakistan Star.
Rapper Dragon, Beauty Generation and Pakistan Star are working very well and are the three highest rated horses in the race. With the expected slow pace, being perfectly drawn in gate four gives Rapper Dragon a clear advantage. Any doubt if the additional 200m would be difficult for him to master is likely not to be an issue with the slow pace. He is the clear favourite and, being the choice of Joao Moreira, he has a very good chance to create history to become the first horse to win the 4YO Classic Series.
Pakistan Star is, in my opinion, the most likely challenger with his tremendous turn of foot. He can run the fastest last 400m and, going up from 1800m to 2000m, should be an advantage given his pedigree. And don’t forget, he was clearly making up ground on Rapper Dragon in the Classic Cup. A good pace, which is admittedly unlikely, would help to expose the possible weaknesses in the stamina of Rapper Dragon. If Pakistan Star could be closer to Rapper Dragon coming into the straight, it could make the Derby more of a test.
I expect Beauty Generation to be ridden from the back because his last attempt to be closer to the pace was not effective and he is proven at the distance, being second in a Group 1 in Australia. That said, Pakistan Star has the superior turn of foot and I see Beauty Generation more as a place chance.
Gold Mount and Booming Delight have shown good form and have proven form over this 2000m or longer, showing this trip at this time is likely no issue for them. Both will have big race jockeys on board with Gerald Mosse and Ryan Moore, respectively. Gold Mount is, in a way, the dark horse, and his first up over 1600m in a Class 2, beating Invincible Dragon, was a great performance. His best form overseas at beyond 2000m makes him a place chance too.
Seasons Bloom and Limitless are my two other horses I like for placings having shown great potential, but stamina is a question for Seasons Bloom. The slow pace could make the race a 400m dash which will help him, especially being likely positioned in midfield. Limitless impressed me with having an amazing action and impressive stride and having good acceleration, but he tends to get very temperamental and keen in the race which makes it potentially quite difficult to settle him in a slowly run race. He is still a place chance in my view despite this risk and not having run over 2000m, but the race he won in Great Britain, the Britannia at Royal Ascot over a tough 1600m, has been a good source for Hong Kong Derby horses in the past.
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