Many of you will of course remember that Akeed Mofeed justified favouritism to win the BMW Hong Kong Derby last year, and earn the crown as the top four-year-old of the season. Twelve months on, the Derby victor has developed into a top-class international performer, most notable for his defeat of Cirrus des Aigles and reigning Horse of the Year Military Attack in the G1 LONGINES Hong Kong Cup last December. Endowing and Gold-Fun, second and third in last year’s Derby, have also had great success and further boosted the 2013 Derby form: the former won the G2 LONGINES Jockey Club Cup in November, while the latter finished runner-up in the G1 LONGINES Hong Kong Mile a month later. As for Akeed Mofeed, his next target is the Dubai World Cup, currently the richest race in the world, at Meydan on 29 March, and he will be joined in that race by Military Attack.
At Sha Tin racecourse tomorrow a new Derby hero will be crowned in the prestigious HK$16 million event. Many hold high expectations about our crop of four-year-olds this year, saying that their general quality is the best for some time. They have a good case as Able Friend and Designs On Rome have both shown plenty of talent with their victories in the Hong Kong Classic Mile and Hong Kong Classic Cup respectively. The Derby is the real test for both horses, as well as for the other 12 contenders, and I, like every racing fan, am fascinated by the prospect of tomorrow’s race. I am sure it will be a great contest and it will be interesting to see which horse will come out on top and grab the most coveted prize in Hong Kong racing.
I have done a bit of research into the race and an interesting statistic is that since the Derby distance was changed from 1800m to 2000m in 2000, it has been a good race for well fancied horses. Only one winner has started at bigger odds than 6.5 since then (Vital King at 11 in 2007), and the favourite has won seven of the last 11 runnings of the race. Reinforcing that is the fact that the Derby winner tends to be rated at least 100 going in to the race, which has been the case every year since 2001.
Able Friend and his stablemate Designs On Rome are likely to be the two shortest priced runners tomorrow, are two of the four runners rated 100 or more going into the race (the others being All You Wish and Secret Sham) and should be the two key contenders in the 2014 BMW Hong Kong Derby. In my opinion both of them are very talented, and Designs On Rome could well develop into one of the top 2000m horses in the world. Perhaps he could even match the achievements of Military Attack, while Able Friend could become one of the best turf milers in Asia.
Given his impressive victory in the Classic Cup last time, Designs On Rome looks like the one to beat. Able Friend may have his work cut out over this 2000m trip, but on the positive side his draw in barrier five means that he should be able to break and sit where he wants without too much early effort.
However, the race is not only about those two horses. There are a number of other very good young prospects in the Derby field too. The Michael Chang-trained Dibayani is one of them. In my opinion, he has the ability to play a major role, but drawing Gate 14 limits his options and could pose problems as he may be forced to go back in the field. Having said that, he still represents a good place chance, and in the medium and long term I expect he will develop into a good horse over 2000m to 2400m. Amongst outsiders, I would opt for Wayfoong Express, saddled by last year’s Derby-winning trainer Richard Gibson. Despite the horse’s huge disadvantage on official ratings in a level weights contest – he is currently 30 pounds lower than Able Friend and Designs On Rome – his two wins this season over the mile and 2000m have been rather impressive. He is after all the only horse in the field that has won over the course and distance. He could easily settle in a good position with his draw from gate 1 and have a chance to grab some prize money.
The Queen’s Silver Jubilee Cup is the other G1 event on offer tomorrow. At the intermediate distance of 1400m not only has it attracted a host of sprinters and milers, it will also feature an exciting tug-of-war between the established stars such as Lucky Nine, Dan Excel and Gold-Fun, and the up-and-coming talents such as Super Lifeline, Smart Volatility and Dundonnell. It should be a fascinating race which could mark the start of a changing of the guard in this division – we shall see.
This race is expected to run at a good to slow pace with Smart Volatility, who steps up to the 1400m for the first time, should have no problem to take lead and to overcome his wide gate. Dundonnell is also capable of leading but is more likely to take the box seat on the inside of Super Lifeline or Dan Excel. Lucky Nine, Packing Whiz and Frederick Engels can be well placed too. Charles The Great may race wide while Gold-Fun and Flagship Shine may be eased to the rear. Under normal circumstances Lucky Nine should be the horse to beat, but he is no longer unbeatable in current stage. Some of the four-year-olds in the field may challenge him, especially Flagship Shine who is working very well as well as Dundonnell. Both of them will have good place chance in this race. Gold-Fun and Frederick Engels are the two runners from the group of five-year-olds who are capable for a place finish here as well.
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