Sports predictions can sometimes go awry

I’m sure many of you will have watched the exciting Champions League final last Saturday night, which saw reigning Bundesliga champions Bayern Munich defeat Borussia Dortmund to be crowned European champions for the fifth time.  It was an enthralling game which Bayern only secured late on thanks to Arjen Robben’s deciding goal in the 89th minute that made it 2-1 – the scoreline I predicted in my previous blog. 

Both teams delivered top performances, and so gave the worldwide audience a chance, probably the best advert, to see how Bundesliga teams play fast tempo football, and in a very tactical way.  I think the performances of the two goalkeepers Manuel Neuer and Roman Weidenfeller were particularly outstanding. Each saved a couple of clear-cut chances in the match to keep their team in the contest.  It was a very entertaining and enjoyable match.

Sometimes one can correctly predict a match result but sometimes in sport athletic performances can exceed our expectations, whether in football or horseracing. California Memory in the Standard Chartered Champions & Chater Cup last Sunday is an example as I, like many others, doubted that he could stretch out over the longer distance. Despite the genuine early pace in the 2400m G1, this diminutive grey delivered a convincing winning performance, surging home to prove that he has the stamina to complement his class.  It’s been another successful season for California Memory as he succeeded in winning his second LONGINES Hong Kong Cup in December; this latest victory in the Chater Cup is the fourth G1/HKG1 victory of his excellent career. 

Many top athletes in all sports have to contend with niggling injuries and aching joints and California Memory has had his share of those in the past. Because of this, his trainer Tony Cruz has said he will not send the horse on any more overseas campaigns. Should he remain sound next season, I think this horse will continue to be a major force here on our home turf and it will take a very good horse to stop him from claiming a third LONGINES Hong Kong Cup in December.  Meanwhile, Chater Cup runners-up Willie Cazals and Dominant both delivered nice runs and it will be good to see them continue their progress into next season when they will no doubt feature in the LONGINES Hong Kong Vase, all being well.

While California Memory and Sha Tin Vase winner Charles The Great drew many racing fans’ attention, Zac Purton was the star horseman of the day as he bagged a treble which turned up the heat in the jockey’s championship.  Now Zac is within five wins of Douglas Whyte.   One important point to note is that Douglas will serve a two-day suspension next week after the Yasuda Kinen.  With Douglas set to ride Glorious Days in Japan, that means he will miss three Hong Kong racedays and if Zac can take this opportunity he could close the gap or even be at least level with Douglas when he returns.

Of course we have tonight to get through first and Douglas has a significant numerical advantage as he’s fully booked in all eight races, while Zac has only three rides this evening. A big night for Douglas would swing the pendulum back in his favour. At this moment, Douglas is in the driving seat and both my instincts and the evidence before me tell me it will be difficult for Zac to prevent a 13th straight title for the champion, but then one of the things that makes all sport so exciting is that it can sometimes be wonderfully unpredictable.  

Back to our races tonight, in the last race of the day, the Hing Tung Handicap, it is run as a Class 3 over 1650m.  There is no genuine leader in the race and the pace is likely to be set by on pace runners like Circuit Star, Blossom Daily and One Of A KindBlossom Daily and One Of A Kind can overcome their wide draws by going forward and the tempo should be on the slow side which is normally an advantage for them, especially on the C+3 Course we run today.  Superninsky and Horse Aplenty should be well placed in midfield with Cultural City, Ride With The Wind, Noble De Best, as well as Enthusing further back. 

Circuit Star is working very well and with the slow pace he should be the horse to beat.  One Of A Kind should have overcome his disappointing performance last time and is a place chance for me.  Horse Aplenty returns to turf race this time and his last run was encouraging.  He is a place chance for me too.  Superninsky should be well positioned and is an interesting outsider for a place.


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