I'm sure many of you watched our live simulcast of the Centaur Stakes from Japan last Sunday, and were as delighted as I was to witness the fine performance of Hong Kong sprinter Green Birdie in this 1200m event. Although pocketed along the fence on entering the home straight, his jockey Mark Du Plessis was able to find some room and daylight at 200m, whereupon seven-year-old Green Birdie produced a devastating late burst and only just failed to catch race winner Dasher Go Go – a three-year-old enjoying a four-kilo advantage – at the wire.
With a bit more luck early on, I'm sure Green Birdie could have comfortably won this race. There is much for his trainer Caspar Fownes to be encouraged about, though, especially the horse's ability to cope with the undulating Hanshin track. Let's hope his preparations can continue smoothly in the next three weeks, and that he can produce an even better performance at the similar track at Nakayama in the Group 1 Sprinters Stakes on 3 October.
It was notable that there were significant differences in the odds offered for Dasher Go Go and Green Birdie in Japan and Hong Kong. Race winner Dasher Go Go was the fourth favourite in Japan as his odds were 9.6 to win and 3.2 to place when the race started. But those who bet in Hong Kong could enjoy longer odds of 16 to win and 3.5 to place. For Green Birdie, he was second favourite in Japan and started at winning odds of 6.3, with place odds at 2.6. But in Hong Kong, where our home racing fans offered strong betting support to this local hero through our simulcast, he went off as top favourite, with far shorter odds of 2.6 to win and 1.5 to place.
My colleagues did a bit of research after the race and told me the total turnover collected by the Japan Racing Association in this Group 2 event reached a whopping 3.86 billion yen, which is about HK$355 million at current exchange rates. If commingled pools were available for this race, the difference in odds would have been non-existent, as the betting money placed by Hong Kong racing fans would have been injected into the larger commingled pools in Japan. The dividends in Japan and Hong Kong would have been identical. This demonstrates that our racing fans in Hong Kong who offered their betting support on Green Birdie could benefit from more attractive payouts in situations like this.
However, the thing we should be most worrying about is that these substantial odds differences allow illegal betting syndicates the chance to indulge in hedging activities. They can collect bets from their local customers in Hong Kong, then place bets on the larger pools in Japan to reap better rewards and reduce their level of risk. Not only does this situation encourage illicit bookmakers to thrive, it also results in losses to betting duty revenue for the public purse.
By our estimates, commingled pools on races like these could bring the Club extra turnover of up to HK$4-5 billion a season, generating additional tax revenues of HK$150-180 million for the Government. This amount would easily surpass the HK$114 million in betting tax we paid to the Government from our simulcast race turnover last season. In addition, once we could operate commingled pools on overseas races, we could then co-operate reciprocally with overseas racing clubs and jurisdictions to set up commingled pools for our major races in Hong Kong.
We have always been a leader in the global racing industry. Despite that, the issue of double taxation – Hong Kong making no concession for the duty paid in the bettor's home country – and the fact that we are not permitted to take part in outgoing commingling, have so far served as a major obstacle against the implementation of commingled pools here. Unfortunately, this is also the area other regional racing clubs and jurisdictions have been actively working on over the past year. This stagnation has undoubtedly posed a great risk to our local racing development, and Hong Kong’s leadership role in global racing. It could be even worse if we are to be overtaken by our regional partners, such as in Singapore, in a long run.
I feel the Club cannot afford to get left behind in this growing worldwide trend and I do hope the Government can heed our call to study reducing the tax rate on commingled bets.
The support given by the Government will be vital to ensure the sustainability of local racing industry in the long run, but in the mean time, we're also eagerly hoping for better weather conditions, so as to allow all of us and our customers to better enjoy the races at the Valley tonight! Among the eight races on the card, I will be interested to see the performances of New Idea in the South Bay Handicap. In this first leg of Triple Trio which I expect the pace will be fast, this five-year-old horse will likely to get a nice position from Gate 4. In addition, Win A Dozen who has a nice draw of Gate 2, is also a reliable runner in this distance at Happy Valley. I think these two horses will be the key contenders in this mile event, and I’ll see how they perform tonight.
In the Hong Kong Management Association 50th Anniversary Cup, At Moment In Time has been working well at trackwork recently and Danny Shum’s stable has shown good form at the start of this season. I expect there will have a fast pace, and the horse should be able to find a good spot in the field from Gate 5. He’s my favourite in this race. Meanwhile, Our Pegasus, with Douglas Whyte on board, as well as Longwah Rising, who performed nicely in a 1000m race at Sha Tin last Sunday, should be the other runners who can give At Moment In Time a challenge.
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