Assessing the strength and the depth of a four-year-old Classic crop is never easy until all the lead-up races have been completed but it now seems safe to say that this year’s BMW Hong Kong Derby field scores very well on both counts.
Frankie Lor dominated the first two legs of the Four-Year-Old Classic Series, saddling three of the first four home in both the Classic Mile and the Classic Cup, and in Dark Dream, Furore and Mission Tycoon he clearly holds a very strong hand with his first Derby contenders in just his second season with a training licence.
However, Frankie’s former boss John Size has never been afraid of taking a slightly less traditional route to the Derby.
That approach paid off in style when Ping Hai Star came from last to first to give him his third Derby success 12 months ago and Waikuku stated his case for this year’s Classic with a very impressive success at Sha Tin on Saturday.
Waikuku had several important questions to answer in the Class 2 Lion City Handicap as he was drawn widest of all in a 12-runner field while conceding between 9lb and 23lb to some talented horses.
He was also moving up to 1800m for the first time after three wins over 1400m but it is clear that he is improving with every run and he vaulted to the top of the Derby rating list by producing a terrific run from well off the pace.
One of the strongest trends in identifying the Derby winner in recent years is to focus on those horses who have already achieved a three-figure rating – in fact, all of the last 10 winners entered the race rated 102 or higher.
Mission Tycoon, Dark Dream and Furore had already reached the required level with marks of 102, 104 and 104 respectively, but Saturday’s win means that Waikuku has jumped to the top of the pecking order with his new rating of 108.
All the evidence suggests that we are in for another memorable Derby – with the battle between the champion trainer and his former assistant as one of the strongest themes – and some more light will be shed on the field when we stage our selections ceremony at Happy Valley today.
Later on at the Valley, the Police Cup Handicap is a Class 3 over 1800 metres and there will be no speeding tickets issued during the early stages of the race.
The pace will be slow. Red Elysees is a last start winner when allowed to set a slow tempo at Sha Tin over this same distance against weaker opposition. He will set the pace with only token pressure from possibly Pikachu and Faithful Trinity.
Helene Charisma trialled well recently at Conghua and will be a bit closer to the pace than usual. He comes into the race in good form and is a win and place chance to score for the first time since coming to Hong Kong over two years ago on a rating of 94.
Famous Warrior is likely to go forward from his outside draw and cross over to take up a prominent position. He led in a mile trial at Conghua and has gone forward in the past. He is a place chance after finishing in the top three in each of his last three starts.
The slow pace will work against many of the runners in this race. Namjong Plus is a two-time winner this season in the class, course and distance. He will come from the back and is a place chance along with You Have My Word, another horse that is proven over this trip.
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