BMW Hong Kong Derby a fascinating renewal

The chance to win a Derby in any jurisdiction comes around just once, and tomorrow at Sha Tin we will see our leading four-year-olds attempt to claim that singular title – BMW Hong Kong Derby champion – which is such a driving force for their Owners. There are many fascinating angles on the race, and I will offer a few thoughts on some of them in my comments below.

First, on Thursday, we hosted the barrier draw ceremony for the race and I was joined by our Executive Director, Racing, Andrew Harding, Director of Racing Business and Operations, Bill Nader, as well as Kevin Coon and Joseph Lau from BMW Hong Kong. This is the sixth year of BMW’s sponsorship of the race and we remain thankful for their support of this very exciting race.

Singapore Sling, our Hong Kong Classic Mile winner, was probably the most kindly-treated of the major chances in the race, drawing barrier three. He has enjoyed inside draws in all three of the races of the Four-Year-Old Classic Series and is obviously a major chance. The video of his Classic Cup win is below.

The other two likely to be well supported in the betting market, Exultant and Nothingilkemore are in gates 12 and 13, respectively. While this will likely enable them to stay out of any congestion to their inside, they will have to cover more ground, which could be particularly troublesome for Nothingilikemore, who will be facing the 2000m for the first time. Below is the video of Nothingilikemore’s win in the Hong Kong Classic Mile.

The Golden Age is the main speed in the race and is drawn in barrier 11. As for the pace of the Derby, it is expected to be good-to-slow with the only question being how much speed The Golden Age will have to use to cross over from a wide draw. Good Omen, who has performed very well in his last few efforts could be ridden a bit more forward under Douglas Whyte from a nice inside draw.

Ruthven, Rocketeer and Lockheed would all expect to be close, with Singapore Sling stalking from a ground-saving position. Italian import Patriot Hero and English Group 1 winner Rivet are expected to race from midfield.

Rattan and Savvy Six should be near the rear, with Doctor Geoff as well. The SpeedPRO map suggests that Nothingilikemore will likely drop out of the back along with Exultant and Ping Hai Star, but I do have some questions about where Ping Hai Star will be placed in the running. Coming off three wins over 1400m races, with paces that are much faster than what will be faced here, as well as his 1700m trial at Happy Valley last week where he broke well from a high draw and was tugging Joao Moreira forward down the backstraight, it could be difficult to get him to settle that far off the pace.

Favourites have won 11 of the last 18 runnings of the Derby, including five of the last seven, with only Vital King’s 10-1 win in 2007 being the only double-digit price during that period. The average winning price during that period is just 3.6, with all but three winners jumping higher than 4.8. Among the main chances vying for the role of favourite, it could be Exultant, with that strong win over 2000m, or possibly Singapore Sling with a good barrier following his Classic Cup win. Perhaps even Nothingilikemore goes as favourite following notable excuses from missing the start and his lost shoe, with still a good run in the Classic Cup.

Statistics over the last five years show that you have to have a rating above 100 to win the BMW Hong Kong Derby, and I think it will be the same in the 2018 edition. Singapore Sling is my first choice for a win and definitely a place, but Exultant will be a tough opponent especially with the extra 200m will be in his favour, and he has definitely improved his racing manners since a cross-over-nose bend was applied before his last start.

One cannot rule out Nothingilikemore at least for a place, but I prefer him over a shorter distance and the same applies to Ping Hai Star. Rivet had his best performance in the Classic Mile and was unfortunately scratched at the gate in the Classic Cup, but I would not rule him out for a place.

Earlier today I attended the SCMP/HKJC Student of the Year Awards, for which I am on the Advisory Board. The categories and the competition amongst the many talented students was indeed fierce, with 675 applications from 152 schools across Hong Kong. The Student of the Year Awards aim at recognizing and rewarding secondary 4-6 students in Hong Kong with distinctive achievement in nine categories.

Also, I was most humbled to be named Leader of the Year 2017 by Sing Tao in the Sports / Culture / Performing Arts category and received the award in a ceremony on Thursday.