The first race of the Four-Year-Old Classic Series is upon us with the prestigious HK$10 million Hong Kong Classic Mile tomorrow, which goes as Race 9. The roster of winners of this race is an esteemed one, including a host of champions such as Rapper Dragon, Beauty Only, Able Friend and the globetrotting Lucky Nine. In fact, six of the last seven winners of the Classic Mile were later crowned at our Champion Awards at some point in their career.
While Nothingilikemore is likely to be a hot favourite given his success thus far, this year’s crop feels particularly strong at this point. The excitement begins tomorrow.
For this race, the pace is expected to be slow which will favour horses in the front of the field. The race seems to lack a confirmed front-runner, and the speed map suggests Lockheed or Grand Chancellor could go forward. Nothingilikemore has led before and could be placed about anywhere Joao Moreira wants. Time To Celebrate should also be closer having been a bit slow away last out and facing a fast pace.
Slow paces can cause some surprise results especially when races are decided by a sprint in the last 400m. Nothingilikemore, who is Australian-bred, and came to Hong Kong as an unraced horse to Hong Kong, is the clear favourite. It is a major achievement to achieve a rating of 112 as a PPG and I like him most because he is ridden by Moreira and can handle a slow pace. He should be the horse to beat on all counts and the only uncertainty is if he stays the extra distance stepping up from 1400m to 1600m. I am not concerned about this and with his tactical adaptability he can even lead if the pace is very slow.
Exultant, who is Irish bred and raced in Ireland and Great Britain, was very impressive in his last win over 2000m, but coming back in distance and facing a slow pace is not ideal but he should still have a chance to be placed. Tony Cruz has decided not to put the hood on to relax him like he did in his recent trial because he is coming back in distance from 2000m to 1600m, but the expected slow pace will give his Jockey Zac Purton some challenges. Still, Exultant was able to overcome the near impossible in his last race when pulling hard but still finishing off strongly.
Singapore Sling, who was bred and ran in South Africa, is a Group 2 winner over 1600m on yielding ground. He has acclimatised well and is another horse I like for a place.
Lockheed was bred in Great Britain, ran as a 2-year-old in Great Britain and Ireland, and his best performance was a third in a Group 1. In his only start as a 3-year-old, he was beaten a neck in a Group 2 for 3 year olds in Germany. Craig Williams has been flown in for this race and Lockheed is, in my opinion, a chance for a place too.
Time To Celebrate is from New Zealand and a two time winner over 1400m to 1500m. He has adapted very well to Hong Kong with three wins from five starts and is proven over 1600m in his last Class 2 win. He should be well-positioned to challenge his John Size stablemate Nothingilikemore, but I see him more as a place chance.
Morethanlucky is a 2-year-old winner from New Zealand and with four wins from 12 starts has worked his way up from his last Class 3 win over course and distance. He is working very well but needs to further lift to beat his higher rated competitors. With the slow pace and his good dash, he could surprise.
Ruthven is a talented horse winning the Group 1 Queensland Derby over 2200m and his first start was fair, but he needs a longer distance and is building up for his ultimate target, the BMW Hong Kong Derby.
Rivet came to Hong Kong with high credentials being a Group 1 Winner in Great Britain and finished third in a French classic over 1600m, but his form in his first local starts was disappointing. Only in his last start did he show some of his quality when being beaten by Time To Celebrate in a Class 2 over 1600m, but I prefer him over a slightly longer distance and a fast pace would suit him better.
Comment
