It is an eventful time of the year in global racing and much attention will be paid to the three-year-olds this weekend, on both dirt and turf. Our racing fans in Hong Kong will witness the famed 2,000 Guineas meeting from Newmarket tonight. Churchill, riding a five-race win streak through last October’s Dewhurst Stakes, is the favourite as trainer Aidan O’Brien seeks another Classic success. As usual, the master of Ballydoyle has several runners in the Guineas, a fascinating race which sees the Classic debut of the progeny of Frankel with two runners, Dream Castle and Eminent, who will seek to emulate their sire’s win in the 2011 edition of the race.
While Churchill, the horse, is running, Churchill Downs will be in the spotlight in America early on Sunday morning our time as the Kentucky Derby takes centre stage. While Australia has the “first Tuesday in November” for the Melbourne Cup, the “first Saturday in May” is dedicated for the big race in Louisville. I look forward to watching our simulcast from England tonight and I’m sure many of you will catch a replay of the Kentucky Derby tomorrow morning.
Sha Tin is home to a big Group 1 doubleheader tomorrow with the Champions Mile and Chairman’s Sprint Prize. Last year two overseas raiders took the day by storm as Chautauqua blitzed home to win the first international version of the Chairman’s Sprint Prize, while Maurice cemented his place a top miler in the world with his cracking display in the Champions Mile.
Our home ace Rapper Dragon will be the spotlight horse this year. He proved his clean sweep in the Four-Year-Old Classic Series was no fluke when defeating a cracking group of older opponents last time in the Chairman’s Trophy.
He will make his debut in an all-age international Group 1 race in the Champions Mile and could further show that he’s one of the best milers in the world. A win will also be something extra special for John Moore as it could be his seventh Champions Mile success since 2007. He also has this year’s only dual Group 1 winner in Hong Kong – Helene Paragon. Two overseas runners, both with Hong Kong-based ownership, will take their chances in the field too.
For the Champions Mile, the pace is likely to be slow. Contentment is the most likely leader while Convey should settle just off him in second. Rapper Dragon can be placed just about anywhere, but seems like he would get a good position inside behind the leader. Circuit Land and Stormy Antarctic, getting blinkers for the first time, should be in midfield with Beauty Only and Helene Paragon the early trailers.
Rapper Dragon is now on level weights with Beauty Only after getting five pounds from the Hong Kong Mile winner in their last start, a half-length win for our Derby victor. Given the likely slow pace, it could be quite challenging to make up significant ground, and while I don’t see this field being too stretched-out, Rapper Dragon with Joao Moreira should get the jump on the field and I think he will earn that first Group 1. He is my main win and place chance.
Beauty Only is a win candidate, but I think the pace could go against him. His connections will be hoping the weather stays dry. He must be respected off of his top form. Stormy Antarctic worked well on Thursday with is also a placing chance with fellow visitor Convey. Contentment has the blinkers removed and is a placing hope given the likely pace.
In the Chairman’s Sprint Prize, Peniaphobia is quite consistent and should go forward along with Dashing Fellow from his wide draw. The pace should be good in this race, with Thewizardofoz and Lucky Bubbles likely to track the lead with Mr Stunning and Strathmore chasing from midpack. Blizzard is likely to be near the rear with Not Listenin’tome and Amazing Kids.
Mr Stunning has been on a strong upward path and certainly my main win and place chance for Joao Moreira and John Size. Peniaphobia has done little wrong and is always game. Mr Stunning will likely have to run down Peniaphobia once again in order to win. Thewizardofoz is working well and should improve off his last run, making him a serious placing chance. Lucky Bubbles is always a threat to run well from off the pace and is another of the main contenders.
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